Here are my latest power rankings for Matt James’ season of The Bachelor.
NOTE: These power rankings account for everything that happens in the actual episodes. They do NOT take into account future episode previews or any spoilers floating around the Internet.
WARNING: SPOILERS from the sixth week coming.
- Rachael, 24, a graphic designer from Cumming, Ga. (no change) — Four of the women have told Matt they’re falling in love with him, and Rachael is the only one who has heard it back. That alone makes her the clear frontrunner right now.
- Michelle, 27, Teacher, Edina, MN (no change) — Michelle follows up a strong one-on-one date in week 4 with a group date rose this week. She is one of only four women to have received both a one-on-one date rose as well as a group date rose. She tells Matt “for you almost to be my comfort zone, when I have not known you that long, is really standing out to me.”
- Pieper, 23, a graduate student from Happy Valley, Ore. (+4) — Pieper continues to advance, getting the rose after a nighttime carnival one-on-one date. It’s been clear for a while that they have strong chemistry, which is why I moved Pieper into the top tier of my power rankings two weeks ago. At the end of their one-on-one date, Pieper tells Matt she’s falling in love with him. But importantly, Matt does not tell her that he is falling in love with her as well. This puts her at a clear disadvantage vis-à-vis Rachael. Plenty of time for things to change though.
- Serena P., 22, a publicist from Toronto, Ontario, Canada (no change) — We don’t hear a ton from Serena P. this week, but there are little moments that, in my opinion, reinforce her strong position. One of them is the bowling group date, where Serena is the first woman to jump up and hug him. Another moment is during the group date cocktail party, when she and Matt are laughing hysterically at something and seem to be having a good time. She also tells Matt that she is falling in love with him. He does not tell her that he is falling in love with her as well. Advantage Rachael.
- Bri, 24, a communications manager from San Francisco, Calif. (-2) — I feel pretty confident in the top 5 of my power rankings. Rachael is clearly in pole position with Michelle close behind. Pieper/Serena P./Bri are pretty close together in the #3 to #5 spots — I could see any one of them making it to Fantasy Suites. Bri got the first one-on-one date rose in week 2 and followed it up with a group date rose in week 4. We haven’t seen a ton of Bri since then, but it’s possible she’ll return to the forefront in week 7.
- Kit, 21, a socialite from New York City, N.Y. (-1) — Based on what I’ve seen, Kit is currently the least well-positioned of the six remaining one-on-one date rose recipients. As I noted last week, the coverage of their one-on-one date was very short, which usually isn’t the type of edit producers make for someone who makes it to the end. Still, she has a relatively recent one-on-one date rose, which probably helps her survive another Rose Ceremony. One of the funniest moments of this week’s episode is when Matt tells the five women on the losing bowling team that they have to go home, and she says “Matt, what do you want in a wife? A bowler?”
- Abigail, 25, a client financial manager from Beaverton, Ore. (-1) — Abigail is clearly frustrated this week about not getting enough time with Matt. Although she got the first impression rose, she still has not gotten a one-on-one date. She says in one of her interviews “it’s frustrating when you have that potential and then you can’t explore it.” Although I initially had Abigail at the top of my power rankings in weeks #1, #2, and #3, I realized by week #4 that her chances were fading as Matt moved faster with other women. My gut tells me that if Matt really wanted to be with Abigail, he would have taken her on a one-on-one date by now. Historically it’s pretty tough to advance to Hometowns (week #8) without a one-on-one date the first six weeks.
- Chelsea, 28, a runway model from Brooklyn, N.Y. (no change) — Chelsea faces the same problem as Abigail — not enough time. Matt does reassure her that “if you’re here it’s because I could see myself with you.” While that may be true, we just have to look at the hard evidence. Six of the remaining women have gotten one-on-one date roses — Chelsea is not one of them.
- Jessenia, 27, a social media marketer from San Antonio, Texas (+2) — Jessenia takes out MJ in the two-on-one date this week after calling her out for bullying and toxicity in the house. It was especially entertaining when she mockingly referred to MJ as Meredith during one of their many heated arguments. Jessenia has not yet received a one-on-one date rose or a group date rose, which dims her prospects of making it to Hometowns.
- Heather, 25,a social media influencer from Carlsbad, CA (NEW) — In an interesting twist, Heather Martin returns to The Bachelor two years after vying for Colton’s heart (and her first kiss!). Although they’ve supposedly never met, Matt does seem to recognize her, so it’s possible that they’ve texted or video chatted in the past. I for one am quite skeptical of Heather’s chances, even if Matt does end up feeling a spark. It’s very late in the process, and the prospect of Matt meeting someone and proposing 3–4 weeks later seems unlikely, especially when he already has strong connections with other women.
- Serena C., 24, a flight attendant from San Francisco, Calif. (+3) — Serena C. ruins any remaining goodwill with Bachelor Nation this week by going after fan-favorite Katie. She gets into several heated arguments with Katie, accusing her of being an “arsonist” for telling Matt about the bullying and toxicity in the house. As Katie says, “at this point, she’s just making herself look stupid…I cannot reason with crazy.”
Sent Home: This was another solid week for me in predicting who would go home. Out of the 15 remaining women at the end of week 5, everyone in my top eight power ranking spots from week 5 advanced, with two additional roses for the women in spots #11 and #14.
- MJ, 23, a hairstylist from Hudson, Ohio (previously ranked 15) — Good riddance. Along with Victoria and Anna, MJ promoted a vicious divide between the “OG” / “Varsity” girls and the New / “JV” girls. It was good to see Jessenia call her out on this and for Matt to realize her true nature. As Jessenia aptly puts it at the end of their two-on-one date, “you knocked yourself out, MJ.”
- Magi, 32, a pharmacist from Adwa, Ethiopia (previously ranked 13) — Magi was one of those contestants who was just sort of there for a while. It was clear that her connection with Matt wasn’t particularly strong, and she didn’t get much screen time either.
- Ryan, 26, Dancer/Choreographer, Brooklyn, NY (previously ranked 12) —As I noted in last week’s blog post, Ryan’s main challenge was arriving so late. It just makes it very hard to advance, especially when one of the other newcomers (Michelle) immediately gets a one-on-one date.
- Brittany, 23, Model, Chicago, IL (previously ranked 10) — Brittany was the newcomer outside of Michelle who I thought had the best chance to advance, but it wasn’t meant to be. For what it’s worth, I do think she would have been a strong contender if she had arrived the first night.
- Katie, 29, a bank marketing manager from Renton, Wash. (previously ranked 9) — Despite not making it to the Final 10, Katie accomplished quite a lot during her time on The Bachelor by helping send home Victoria, Anna, and MJ. From the start, Katie was poised to make a big splash, getting a lot of screen time and interviews. But as I noted in my week 4 power rankings, “I’m not yet convinced of her romantic chemistry with Matt.” That came through this week with Matt sending her home at the end of their one-on-one date. Usually the next Bachelorette comes from the women who make it to the Top 6 of a previous season. But if the producers prioritize picking a fan favorite, Katie has a great shot.