This was one of the more revealing weeks of Matt’s journey this season.
NOTE: These power rankings account for everything that happens in the actual episodes. They do NOT take into account future episode previews or any spoilers floating around the Internet.
WARNING: SPOILERS from the fifth week coming.
- Rachael, 24, a graphic designer from Cumming, Ga. (+3) — Rachael is the undisputed frontrunner after this week. During their one-on-one date, Rachael tells Matt that she is falling in love with him, and he tells her “you’re not crazy — cause I feel the same way.” Rachael is the first contestant who Matt admits to falling in love with — a huge step and probably the strongest mid-season predictor of viability.
- Michelle, 27, Teacher, Edina, MN (-1)—Michelle struggles seeing Matt with other women during her group date this week, which just underscores how strongly she feels about him after their one-on-one date last week. Michelle’s chemistry with Matt is very natural and strong — expect to see her in the Final Four.
- Bri, 24, a communications manager from San Francisco, Calif. (-1) — Not much in my notes this week about Bri, but as an early one-on-one rose recipient she is obviously still very much in contention. Although sometimes it can be difficult to have the one-on-one date so early.
- Serena P., 22, a publicist from Toronto, Ontario, Canada (-1)— I see Serena’s position as very similar to that of Bri this week. Until proven otherwise, one-on-one date rose recipients are at the top.
- Kit, 21, a socialite from New York City, N.Y. (+7) — Kit gets a one-on-one date this week, and tells Matt she is falling in love with him. She gets the one-on-one date rose — BUT — Matt does NOT tell her he is falling in love with her back — in contrast to his one-on-one date with Rachael. So we can safely say that Rachael is in a much stronger position than Kit. The other thing I would note about Kit’s date is that it was probably the fastest one-on-one date (in terms of screen time) that I’ve seen in a long time. That reduces the probability of her making it to the end — if she was F1 or F2, I would think the producers would have devoted more air time to their first one-on-one date.
- Abigail, 25, a client financial manager from Beaverton, Ore. (-1)— We see more evidence this week of what I noted in last week’s power rankings — an early frontrunner that may be fading in a large pack. Although Abigail got the first impression rose, she has not gotten a one-on-one date yet. Abigail says in one of her interviews “I just feel like my connection isn’t as far along as the other girls.” I do think she needs a one-on-one date next week to have a realistic shot. She does receive the group date rose this week after connecting with Matt about being raised by single mothers — we’ll see how far it carries her.
- Pieper, 23, a graduate student from Happy Valley, Ore. (-1)— Pieper has strong chemistry with Matt even though they haven’t had a one-on-one date yet — you can see it when they kiss during the group date. I’d say Pieper has one of the strongest chances of getting a coveted one-on-one date in pivotal week 6. And next week is absolutely crucial when week 7 is the week before hometowns — historically it’s very tough to simultaneously have your first one-on-one date in week 7 and advance to hometowns.
- Chelsea, 28, a runway model from Brooklyn, N.Y. (no change) — Chelsea says in an interview this week that she is falling in love with Matt, but she doesn’t quite pull the trigger during their one-on-one time during the group date. Nonetheless, Matt reassures her that he feels very comfortable around her and is happy she’s here. They’ve had quite a few genuine-looking kisses over the past few weeks. Chelsea has a decent shot at a one-on-one date next week, but probably less so that Abigail or Pieper.
- Katie, 29, a bank marketing manager from Renton, Wash. (-2) — I have a lot of respect for Katie. She has stood strong against the toxicity in the house better than pretty much any contestant I’ve seen in franchise history. And it worked this week with Anna and Victoria both being sent home. At the same time, I’m not quite sure that she has advanced her relationship enough with Matt to launch herself into contention.
- Brittany, 23, Model, Chicago, IL (no change)— Brittany probably would have had a stronger chance if she came in night one. I do think it’s significantly tougher to break in mid-season, especially when another newcomer (Michelle) grabs a one-on-one date from the jump. She also seems very distraught because of the escort accusation from Anna, which may have shaken her confidence and comfort in the house.
- Jessenia, 27, a social media marketer from San Antonio, Texas (+2)— Looks like Jessenia is headed for a two-on-one showdown with MJ, one of the last remaining members of the “OG Girls” gang that hasn’t been sent home yet. Jessenia has also stood up impressively to toxicity and bullying in the house — she has been crystal clear in her criticism of MJ. Some of her memorable quotes in her battle with MJ this week include “I think character’s based on behavior and actions as well” and “You made it uncomfortable for these girls. That’s what you did.” Let’s hope Matt continues his good judgement next week.
- Ryan, 26, Dancer/Choreographer, Brooklyn, NY (+6) — Ryan faces the same problem Brittany faces — it’s hard to start so late. And I don’t see anything particularly strong in her chemistry with Matt yet to justify a higher spot in the power rankings.
- Magi, 32, a pharmacist from Adwa, Ethiopia (+4)— I’ve been surprised at how long Magi has been advancing, but I just don’t see how she advances further when we’ve barely seen any screen time of her thus far. One advantage she does have is that she almost certainly won’t be sent home any time soon for toxicity and bullying.
- Serena C., 24, a flight attendant from San Francisco, Calif. (+5) — Serena C. and MJ are the two remaining contestants who I’ve viewed as firmly in the “OG Girls” side of the house conflict. With Jessenia and MJ teed up for a two-on-one showdown, I could definitely see Serena C. getting wrapped up in further drama as well. I don’t particularly see Serena’s connection with Matt as strong enough to overcome any controversy that may arise, so I think she probably doesn’t advance much further.
- MJ, 23, a hairstylist from Hudson, Ohio (+5) — I think it’s clear to anyone who’s been watching the show that MJ has been a key part of the toxic house culture with Victoria and Anna. Which makes it all the more mind-boggling when she tries to claim she is all about “preaching harmony.” Jessenia is totally in the right to call her out as an antagonist — MJ is definitely on the ropes in her two-on-one date showdown next week.
- Lauren, 29, a corporate attorney from Miami, Fla. (previously ranked 9) — Lauren is the first woman to be sent home despite having received a group date rose in an earlier week. It makes sense — we seen progressively less of her each week and a week 2 group date rose will only take you so far without a follow-up one-on-one date.
- Mari, 24, a marketing director from Odenton, Md. (previously ranked 11) — Mari looked like she had potential early on — it was clear Matt was very attracted to her. But it appears that their relationship just didn’t advance much further as the weeks progressed.
- Catalina, 29, Former Miss Puerto Rico, Caguas, PR (previously ranked 14) — As I’ve been saying for a while, it’s tough to come in mid-season when Matt has already been forming relationships with other women. The only newcomer with a durable edge may be Michelle simply because she got a one-on-one date right off the bat.
- Anna, 24, a copywriter from Chicago, Ill. (previously ranked 15) — I have a lot of respect for Matt for decisively dealing with the drama and toxicity in the house. Anna’s accusation about Brittany was completely unfounded, and she was just very antagonistic in general towards the new girls.
- Victoria, 27, a queen from Los Angeles, Calif. (previously ranked 16) — GOOD RIDDANCE! It’s been a while since I’ve seen a contestant come across so consistently poorly throughout a season — even Luke P. from Hannah B’s season had his moments. As Katie puts it, “Victoria has been a mean girl since day one.” Victoria’s most ridiculous interview is probably when she asks “does Matt really want a wife that’s constantly creating drama, or does he want a wife like me?” As I predicted in my week 2 power rankings, Victoria emerged as the villain very quickly and very strongly, making her due for an exit by week 5.